Faith, Truth, and the Virus
by Dan Doriani
Editor’s Note: Two nationally recognized physicians assessed the best medical studies to date and Prof. Robbie Griggs helped assess social thought.
The believer, by rights, is best able to bear bad news. After all, we believe that we are morally corrupt, unable to reform ourselves, and so incorrigible that the only solution was that the Son of God live and die in our place. If we can accept that, we should be able to face hard truths about our health and the economy. And there are hard truths.
Basic information – Seven ideas
First, several lines of evidence suggest that 15-60% of the population could contract the corona virus over the next 12-18 months. Perhaps 10% will get very sick. Far fewer will die. Still, many of us will develop a fever, a cough, feel tired, maybe even lose our sense of smell.
Second, economists typically say the U.S. economy can tolerate two or three months of the current shut-down strategy. Unless we back off, we will head toward unemployment of up to 20%; the peak during the Great Depression was 25%. This will hit the poor the hardest.
Third, the peak of infection will probably fall between May 1 and July 1, in the US. It will probably taper off slowly for the rest of the summer and fall.
Fourth, infection rates will probably be many times higher through the summer than they are today. If we are reluctant to use our buildings or join crowds in March, we should, logically, be more reluctant in July and beyond.
Fifth, the next months will be hard on all entertainers, entrepreneurs, and small business owners. In the past 24 hours, for example, I have spoken to a woman who is closing her small, part-time business for the next month, to a man who lost 80% of his business in the last week, and to another man who will lose about half of his business.
Sixth, if the disease tails off slowly, schools and churches may will not be able to open at the normal time in the fall. Higher education should anticipate drops in enrollment in the fall.
Seventh, businesses must consider new ways to serve clients or constituents in coming months. Churches need to offer pastoral care and community, not just online worship. Schools will offer content and help in new modes. Everyone needs to develop new ways to serve their people.
Exploring key facts (with links to key studies)
Let’s begin with the economy. Economic analysts are concerned that the shutdown cannot go on long enough to halt the virus. Some believe we may reach 20% unemployment; it is 3% today. COVID-19 may still be rampant when the pressure to reopen the economy is overwhelming. Paul Romer, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2018 and Alan Garber, physician and economist, Provost of Harvard conclude: “To protect our way of life, we need to shift within a couple of months to a targeted approach that limits the spread of the virus but still lets most people go back to work and resume their daily activities.” (Read: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage)
The elements of the economy hardest hit are entertainment, including restaurants, and tourism. We may expect churches and higher education to suffer since they depend on giving and many donors will lose part of their financial capacity. Of course, others will give sacrificially.
Andy Crouch, a leading Christian analyst, says the best analogy for the current crisis is a long winter, not a short blizzard that we can ride out. Crouch stands with those who believe we will never quite “go back to normal.” The crisis will bring permanent change. Crouch says every organization should view itself as a start-up and must therefore “set aside confidence in their current playbook as quickly as possible, write a new one that honors their mission and the communities they serve, and make the most of their organization’s assets — their people, financial capital, and social capital, leaning on relationship and trust.” Crouch say we should both grieve and recast our vision. We should pray that dire forecasts are incorrect but should not plan on that. (Read: https://journal.praxislabs.org/leading-beyond-the-blizzard-why-every-organization-is-now-a-startup-b7f32fb278ff)
An array of factors point to a final infection rate of 15-60% and a pandemic lasting 12 months or more. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel and NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo say “70%” or “40-80%” of their people will contract the virus, their estimates are high, but not irrational. The final tally is most often placed near 25-30%, although studies differ. The Imperial College, together with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other groups, is relatively skeptical. (See the twenty page Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team statement of 16 March 2020). The Gates Foundation reports, by contrast, sound more optimistic.
Researchers predict the high infection rates and long periods of infection because that is how novel, highly contagious diseases behave. The Spanish flu of 1917-19 and the Asian flu of 1957-8 lasted one or two years. The peak of the great plague ran from 1347 to 1351. The “second wave” is largely to blame: after the initial wave subsides, people return to normal activity. Since part of the populace is still infected, the disease spreads again. Quarantines don’t work in the long term. Too many humans break the rules. Besides, there are homeless people and people who must produce food, medicine, and more. So second waves are common. Furthermore, the economy probably can’t stay on lockdown much more than three months. The human cost of economic collapse includes depression, ordinary health care lost, compromised nutrition among the poor, even suicide. Yesterday I spoke to a military chaplain whose unit saw two suicides in eight days.
The Spanish flu infected about 25% of the world population. The medieval plague probably infected over half of all Europeans. Small pox infected around half of all Native Americans. Because we know more about controlling transmission, the infection rate could be 15-20% — and few of that number will get very sick. Of course, infection rates will vary regionally. Where I live, we are getting the virus later, but will probably keep it later.
Aspects of culture and business that bring large groups of people together could be closed through the summer. Concerts, conferences, sporting events (the Olympics!), churches, festivals can expect to be cancelled, while universities, grad schools, even restaurants could plan for sharp declines in the summer and perhaps the fall. Why? Because to flatten to peak of the epidemic is to lengthen its tail. A smaller spike means a longer spread.
Organizations will need to adapt. As a grad school professor, I must prepare to teach online all spring, all summer and perhaps for part of the fall. Our entire schedule could shift for a year.
Is all this an exaggeration? Don’t authorities suggest we will be in the clear, with rapidly falling infection rates, in two or three months? The optimism may be sincere, but it may be PR, to avoid panic. That said, a far better outcome is certainly possible. While none of the reasons to hope for this is probable, any of them could rescue us from the worst outcome. There are three reasons to hope the peak will be far less severe; none is impossible. First, scientists may quickly find a cure. We must wait and see. Second, we might develop a vaccine very rapidly. But vaccines take time; a year would be fast. Third, warmer weather may make the virus less contagious. We will see, but it has appeared in virtually every nation by now.
What then should a Christian do? Let me suggest four disciplines
Four spiritual disciplines
Lamentation. For most of us, work is harder, life seems less rewarding, and we feel anxious. The Lord gave us dozens of psalms of lament because there is so much to lament in this world. They give us language so we can pour out every tragic emotion. Hear the cry and the confidence in Psalm 129:
“Greatly have they afflicted me from my youth”— let Israel now say—
“Greatly have they afflicted me from my youth, yet they have not prevailed against me.
The plowers plowed upon my back; they made long their furrows.”
The LORD is righteous; he has cut the cords of the wicked.
Praise. Even during plague, there are reasons to give thanks. We should praise God for modern medicine, for the vast productivity of our farms and for our superb transportation system. We give thanks for the church, which supports us, and, above, all for the gift of life in Christ. Therefore, “Bless the LORD, O my soul, and forget not all his benefits” (Ps. 103:2).
Honesty. It helped no one when early announcements suggested that schools would reopen and large gatherings would resume in a few weeks. We could have a summer without baseball and a fall without football, concerts, or residential universities. We also have to be honest about the disease, the economy, and our own health. Many of us have “an underlying condition” — an autoimmune disorder, diabetes, asthma – but we hate to admit it because it makes us feel weak or ashamed. If you are older and your health is imperfect, be honest. Ask yourself, “Is my family more aware of my risks than I am?”
We also have to be honest about tradeoffs. Timothy Burke points out that we have a real ethical riddle on our hands (Read: https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke). With bracing candor, Burke says “I’m 55, I have high blood pressure, I have a history of asthma, I’m severely overweight and when I contract the disease, I may well die.” Against his own interest, he contends that we cannot think only of saving his life while ignoring the damage a total economic shutdown causes for the poor.
Sacrifice. If you are under young and healthy, this disease has brought vast disruption, even though you have scant reason to fear death. You are giving up travel, concerts, parties, and income for the sake of others — the sick and the aged. That is beautiful and we need to celebrate it, whether its origin is God’s saving grace or his common grace. But the aged and sick need to think of the poor. And everyone must prepare to endure. Let me suggest three practices.
Three practices
Three practices can help us endure. First, stay in your Christian community. Keep attending church online. Join in worship by singing, confessing your faith, and following the readings. If you have joined a community group, stay there. If you have never found one, join soon. We need each other more than ever.
Second, care for each other. List the people you know who need emotional or material support in coming months, due to age, poverty, or chronic illness. Help them as you can. Love your family. Yield to them in new ways. My anniversary fell on one of the first days of isolation. We could not dine out, so we planned to watch a movie. Since our tastes differ substantially, I decided to be generous and let her choose whatever she wished. Alas, she chose a romantic melodrama that started with a preposterous plot, then populated it with caricatures rather than characters. She thought it was sweet, and it was, but I couldn’t bear it. She knew that, so she gave me permission to work on my computer, as long as we sat close and kissed each other whenever the lead characters did. Deal!
Finally, if you are a leader, formally or informally, think about the ways you can do justice, love mercy, and help others walk humbly with God. Remember the poor, the widow, and the orphan. Policy makers, who have been so secure for so long, can forget those who work in the gig economy or earn $14 per hour. By attending to others, we can “walk in love just as Christ loved us and gave himself up for us” (Eph. 5:2).
Dr. Dan Doriani is Executive Director of The Center for Faith & Work Saint Louis and serves as vice president at large and professor of biblical and systematic theology at Covenant Theological Seminary.